Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 06/0415Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0856Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16364 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Sep, 08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 069
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 007/008-009/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10