Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 06/1025Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0622Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23395 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Sep, 08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 092
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 093/092/092
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/10