Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/2221Z from Region 1837 (S16W61). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep,
08 Sep, 09 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 486 km/s at
05/2239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1314 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Sep, 08 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels, with a chance for active conditions, on day three (09
Sep).

III. Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 101
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 110/115/120
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 006/005-006/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/30