Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar 12 nT at 06/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 185 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 085
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/25