Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 October 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
October 6, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 05/0625Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3318 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 068
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/25

SpaceRef staff editor.