Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 6, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 462 km/s at 05/2325Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/2051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6928 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (07 Oct), active to major storm levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (09 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 081
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 017/022-030/042-013/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/40
Minor Storm 35/35/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 75/70/60

SpaceRef staff editor.