Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 November 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
November 6, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 06/2032Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/2048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1222 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 069
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.