Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 6, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 06/1811Z from Region 2449 (S12E72). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 682 km/s at 06/1915Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 06/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 06/2047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21557 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (07 Nov, 08 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (09 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 115
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 016/025-014/020-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/25
Minor Storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/50/30

SpaceRef staff editor.