Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to

06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at

06/0346Z from Region 2205 (N15E46). There are currently 6 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08

Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

575 km/s at 05/2123Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1137Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/2047Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Nov,

08 Nov, 09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on

days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

Class M    55/55/55

Class X    25/25/25

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Nov 136

Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 135/140/140

90 Day Mean        06 Nov 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  013/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  007/008-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    30/30/30