Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 06/1622Z from Region 3004 (S16W42). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 06/0338Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 06/0301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0553Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1354 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 May, 08 May) and quiet levels on day three (09 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 119
Predicted 07 May-09 May 118/118/116
90 Day Mean 06 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 007/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/10