Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 06/0510Z from Region 2740 (N07E40). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 05/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1427Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1921Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1094 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 076
Predicted   07 May-09 May 076/078/078
90 Day Mean        06 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  010/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/25