Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 717 km/s at 06/1219Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 05/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8170 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 067
Predicted   07 May-09 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        06 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  012/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  021/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  014/020-014/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/40