Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 05/2211Z from Region 2339 (N12E70). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 511 km/s at 06/0735Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 06/0615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 06/1216Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).
III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 55/60/60
Class X 10/15/15
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 136
Predicted 07 May-09 May 145/150/150
90 Day Mean 06 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 011/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May