Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 06/0237Z from Region 2962 (N26E43). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 06/0036Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/2357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/0010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3550 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (09 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 116
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 116/116/115
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 019/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 011/012-011/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/15