Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 06/1528Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3065 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 077
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 077/077/075
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 013/015-007/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/40