Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 06/2055Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 06/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 06/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 706 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 096
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 014/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 017/022-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/15
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/25/20