Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 327 km/s at 06/1910Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/1349Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 06/0939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1060 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 096
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10