Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (07 Jun, 08 Jun) and expected to be very low on day three (09 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed 06/0556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jun), unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 077
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 076/076/074
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 005/005-011/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/25
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/40/30