Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 331 km/s at 05/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 191 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 072
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05