Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (07 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 06/0601Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 221 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 075
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 075/075/072
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10