Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/0712Z from Region 2361 (N16E36). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at 06/1800Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/1032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/0959Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (08 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (09 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 133
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 010/012-015/020-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
