Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/1931Z from Region 2080 (S12E18). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
385 km/s at 06/0132Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2227Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/2233Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Jun, 08 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (09 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 30/35/35
Class X 10/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 133
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 130/130/135
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 007/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/30/15
Major-severe storm 30/20/05