Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jun,
08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
539 km/s at 06/0239Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/2049Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 06/2046Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7110 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (07 Jun, 08
Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 109
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 016/018-017/018-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/50/25
Minor Storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 65/65/30