Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1915Z from Region 2835 (S18W82). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (07 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (08 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (09 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 06/1951Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/0547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/1202Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jul, 08 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 15/10/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 083
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 084/080/080
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 006/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/25