Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 06/2034Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/2209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 183 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jul, 08 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 071
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/20