Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 06/0837Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0403Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (09 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 076
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 076/078/078
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  006/005-007/008-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/15/60