Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 06/2040Z from Region 2381 (N14E31). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 573 km/s at 05/2139Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 440 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul

Class M    45/45/45

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Jul 133

Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 135/140/140

90 Day Mean        06 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  016/022

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  011/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    20/20/20