Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/0025Z from Region 2109 (S08E21). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 303 km/s at
06/1229Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2034Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/0958Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jul, 08 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (09 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 201
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 205/205/205
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 005/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20