Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/0233Z from Region 1785 (S11E12). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
384 km/s at 06/1141Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/0059Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 06/0253Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 480 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 134
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 140/140/145
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 013/025-009/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/30/30