Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 06/1257Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 06/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 06/0514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 074
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/15