Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 January 2020

By SpaceRef Editor
January 6, 2020
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 06/0135Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/2245Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 071
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/25

SpaceRef staff editor.