Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1137Z from Region 2480 (N02E88). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 669 km/s at 06/1038Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 05/2219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 05/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2110 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (09 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 100
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 010/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/20