Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 06/1148Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 580 km/s at 05/2246Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/0357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 06/0802Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 874 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Jan, 09 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 142
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 145/155/160
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 007/008-015/018-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
