Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 06/1341Z from Region 2939 (S16W20). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 06/0849Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4443 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 124
Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 122/120/120
90 Day Mean 06 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 011/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/15/15