Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 688 km/s at 06/0033Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/2302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16600 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Feb, 08 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 073
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 073/073/074
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  010/012-011/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/20