Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1017Z from Region 2280 (S07E01). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 474 km/s at 06/0908Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/0709Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0931Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 620 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 143
Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 145/150/150
90 Day Mean 06 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 007/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb