Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 February 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
February 6, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 February 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1017Z from Region 2280 (S07E01). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 474 km/s at 06/0908Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/0709Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0931Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 620 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

 

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Feb 143

Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 145/150/150

90 Day Mean        06 Feb 153

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  010/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  007/010-007/008-007/008

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    20/20/20

 

SpaceRef staff editor.