Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 December 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/0622Z from Region 2902 (N13W89). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (07 Dec) and expected to be very low on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solarwind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 05/2324Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/1552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/2212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2152 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 080
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15