Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1327Z from Region 2790 (S23W02). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 06/1937Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1955Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 839 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 091
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 090/090/088
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10