Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 06/1945Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 070
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 006/005-007/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/25