Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 06/1355Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 06/1138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3472 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 080
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 016/020-016/020-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10