Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 673 km/s at 06/1817Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/1119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 06/1149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 485 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 102
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 022/025-016/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/55/40