Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 06/1244Z from Region 2222 (S20W64). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 693 km/s at 06/2051Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 06/1430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 06/1826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Dec, 08 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 40/30/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 129
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 130/135/140
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 009/010-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
