Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
06/0648Z from Region 1909 (S17W50). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at
06/0014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 158 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Dec, 08 Dec) and
quiet levels on day three (09 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 151
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 011/012-011/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/05
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 40/40/05