Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 December 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. A large filament eruption was observed in the southwest quadrant
from 06/0030Z to 06/0400Z. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
and C3 imagery. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, all of which are showing signs of decay.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 361 km/s at
06/0024Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (07 Dec and 08
Dec) due to possible CME effects. A return to quiet levels is expected
on day three(09 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 097
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 006/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 25/25/05