Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (07 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 321 km/s at 06/0404Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at. 06/2100Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 074
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 073/075/075
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 010/010-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/25