Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 729 km/s at 06/0308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25869 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (09 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 068
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 020/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 011/014-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/15