Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 788 km/s at 05/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8649 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (08 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 074
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  017/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  008/008-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/25