Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 6, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 732 km/s at 05/2150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16205 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 083
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/010-015/020-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/20
Minor Storm 05/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/55/25


SpaceRef staff editor.