- Press Release
- September 24, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 August 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/0339Z from Region 2132 (S20W21). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
510 km/s at 06/0849Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/0144Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0324Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Aug, 08 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (09 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 20/20/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 137
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 135/130/125
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10