Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 06/1023Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (09 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 06/0040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3827 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 117
Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 116/115/112
90 Day Mean 06 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 019/025-009/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/40
Minor Storm 30/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 70/40/55